Thursday, June 14, 2012

The Soft Coup

The constitutional court has declared the unconstitutionality of the disenfranchisement law allowing Ahmed Shafik to run. The court has also dissolved parliament.

I don’t think I’ve had enough time for legal or political analysis of what this truly means, but everyone knows that this is a military coup and we will end up with a brutal military regime with Ahmed Shafik as the figurehead. Earlier I had said that voting Shafik meant choosing Morsi, but I was wrong, because these elections aren’t fair and now it seems they will be rigged at all costs. Voting Shafik meant choosing injustice.

I never had any doubt in my mind that Shafik would be allowed to run, but the real blow was parliament. It’s not that I had any fondness of parliament but that the ruling indicates audacity and utter confidence of SCAF that it will not be opposed. They do not fear the backlash from any of the forces.

The military is gaining ground and heading towards a Neo-Mubarakism. It will be marked by more oppressive measures and smarter democratic propaganda. We’re losing the media war and we aren’t finding ways of winning yet.

The only thing I can express now is how I feel. We’ve lost an opportunity to start on the right track. I don’t say so having been deluded into thinking that 18 days or 18 months are enough for a successful revolution. I just feel we have been defeated by the old forces of the regime: the military and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood foolishly squandered revolutionary zest that could have benefitted us all. They fought the revolution and what did they gain? A short-lived existence in an impotent parliament. They lead people who trusted them into a soft coup.

The one thing that threatens the military is a break in the mid-level officers, but with one hundred per cent increases in salaries seems to have bought them off enough to kill us on the streets.

The one thing I feel right now is that a great opportunity has been lost. Today we will have to fight the military once again at the peak of its power.

I don’t know if elections will be held on time, there’s a chance they won’t but even if they are, I doubt there is any chance that the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Morsi, can win.

There have been so many parallels between Greece in 1967 and Egypt now. In Greece, just the possibility of losing elections lead to a coup. I had expected this coup before parliamentary elections, but I guess the military was not strong enough back then. After the Muslim Brotherhood drained the revolution, the military has now, once again, taken control.

No comments: